CHART ATTACHED
In the last week I have also warn and again I am warning. From the last many article I am writing about rising wedge pattern which has broken down on down side now after 5 wave rally and after UP election-credit policy and budget market is in a-b-c correction.
Wave a has been completed at 5171 and wave b probably over at 5499.40 now we are heading in to wave c correction and normal target are 4980-4880 and as per rising wedge it can fall up to 4600 as per last week report.
In the last week I have given stop loss of 5500 for short nifty and it just make high of 5499.40 and now in correction mood and as per this I see correction to 4980-4880 and maximum at this point of time is 4600.
Sometimes I don't post analysis in this group so u may visit my web site www.janibrothers.in or you can read the economic revolution magazine where my weekly Colum appear.
From the last many days you all of have read and heard on magazine and on tv channel that technical analyst are talking on GOLDEN CROSS OVER and I think in this week magazine you may read about this by some analyst.
Lest first understand what is golden cross over- it is set of moving average of 50 and 200 day. when 50 day moving average cross over 200 moving average from below that is called golden cross over.
In the week gone nifty has made this formation and as per the technical it is start of new bull market and every analyst are jumping in to bull camp now a days but this rally is driven by liquidity and not by ground level change in Indian economy.
Major problem are still not solved and market is making bullish formation and this formation has success ratio of 60%, you may have read or seen that those past golden cross over example given from 2003 all are done in the wave 1 of super cycle degree wave of smaller degree wave and without improvement of below problem I am not going to sit in the bull camp.
Falling IIP and GDP
Rising Fiscal Deficit
Rising Brent Crude oil
Falling INR against USD
With this I also want to highlight that USD INR has not given golden cross over yet and trading well above the bullish pattern.
So as per my opinion first solve the falling INR against USD and make golden cross over, with this I need recovery in IIP-GDP, narrow down the fiscal deficit-fall in crude oil price then I will have to change my past Elliott wave count of super cycle degree wave till then keep finger crossed for bull market.
Three things I would like to share about golden cross over
This pattern has success ratio of 60%
From 2003 all golden cross over and golden death had been the part of normal 5 wave with a-b-c of super cycle degree wave where success are obvious.
Golden crosses have a 100 per cent success rate during bull markets and a 100 per cent failure rate in bear markets. Which leads to the big question: are we currently in a bull market or a bear market?
Looking at the fundamental factor of economy I still believe we are in bear market.
It is not that you should not invest or trade in market –if you are long term investor with value buying approach then my previous list of stocks which are held and accumulated my family in fall are Noida toll-il&fs investments-mphasis-piramal health-Standard Chartered Idr-Icra-swaraj engine.
And those who are trading please keep appropriate stop loss and exit when stop loss hit.
While due care has been taken in preparing the above Analysis, no responsibility can be or is assumed for any consequences resulting out of acting on it.
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Independent Investor Handbook
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Ultimate Technical Analysis Handbook
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How to Use Bar Patterns to Spot Trade Setups
http://tinyurl.com/yhszv6t
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